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dr.nick.riviera · Joined: 15 Apr 2008 Posts: 15

This epidemiological study (below the MAP blood test positive goat study) suggests that environmental triggers are involved in the development of both CD and UC. Accordingly, a logical and prudent question would be whether or not MAP may be the or one of the environmental triggers?

There certainly is MAP in Korea (from PubMed):
Seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in Korean black goats (Capra hircus aegagrus).
Lee KW, Jung BY, Moon OK, Yang DK, Lee SH, Kim JY, Kweon CH.

In total, 582 sera from 116 black goat herds were analyzed by a commercially available ELISA kit to monitor the seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Mpt) in Korean black goats (Capra hircus aegagrus). The mean number of goats sampled per herd was 5.11, 4.66, and 5.38 for the northern, central, and southern regions of Korea, respectively. The apparent regional prevalence of Mpt was estimated at 18.2-38.2% and 4.6-15.3% for herds and goats, respectively. The Mpt-positive goats were predominantly detected in the south, compared to either the northern or central regions (chi=14.459, P<0.05). Our findings indicate that Mpt is prevalent among the goat population, but regional variation exists.

Epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the Songpa-
Kangdong District, Seoul, Korea, 1986–2005: A KASID Study

Suk-Kyun Yang, MD, Sungcheol Yun, PhD, Jin-Ho Kim, MD, Joon Yong Park, MD, Hak Yang Kim, MD, Young-Ho Kim, MD, Dong Kyung Chang, MD, Joo Sung Kim, MD, In Sung Song, MD, Jong Beom Park, MD, Eui-Ryun Park, MD, Kyung Jo Kim, MD, Gyoo Moon, MD, and Soo Hyun Yang, MD

From PubMed, the abstract:
Background: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are considered rare diseases in developing countries. We have evaluated the incidence and prevalence of CD and UC over time in a district of Seoul, Korea. Methods: A population-based study was performed from 1986 to 2005 in the Songpa-Kangdong district of Seoul. To recruit patients as completely as possible, multiple information sources, including all medical facilities in the study area and 3 referral centers nearby but outside the study area, were used. Results: During the 20-year study period, 138 incident cases of CD (102 men, 36 women) and 341 incident cases of UC (170 men, 171 women) were identified. For the 20-year period, the adjusted mean annual incidence rates of CD and UC per 100,000 inhabitants were 0.53 (95% CI 0.44-0.62) and 1.51 (95% CI 1.34-1.67), respectively. When analyzed by 5-year intervals, the mean annual incidence rates of CD and UC increased significantly, from 0.05 and 0.34 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, in 1986-1990 to 1.34 and 3.08 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, in 2001-2005. The adjusted prevalence rates of CD and UC per 100,000 inhabitants on December 31, 2005, were 11.24 (95% CI 9.29-13.18 ) and 30.87 (95% CI 27.47-34.27), respectively.Conclusions: The incidence and prevalence of CD and UC in Seoul, Korea, are still low compared with those in Western countries, but are rapidly increasing. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2007).

The blood test positive study said that MAP was found throughout Korea, but was predominantly found in the south, compared to the north or central regions. The epidemiological study was done in Seoul, which is in a northern region, so, all things equal (which they probably wouldn't be), I wonder if an epidemiological study performed in the south would show an even greater increase in incidence or prevalence of IBD, considering MAP was found more in goats from the south than from the north? Or would they be less, like the case of cattle TB incidence and human mortality rates in Great Britain in 1948?

Districts with highest rates of TB in cattle have lowest rates of TB death in humans:

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